Is A Recession Dead Ahead? - Forbes

Vejam este artigo. É ousado, chegando a fazer previsões (obviamente, querendo vender seus serviços). O autor necessitava aparentar que sabia fazer algo melhor do que meras previsões genéricas e tinha dicas concretas, concretíssimas, para quem se dispusesse a pagar por elas. (O que não é o meu caso)

Is A Recession Dead Ahead?
James B. Stack, InvesTech Research

WHITEFISH, MONT. - The U.S. economy is now in the sixth year of the fourth longest economic recovery of the past century.

This is when things can go wrong – and usually do.

I wish it weren't so, and I wish I didn't have to say it. But today's economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of 2007. Because the stock market typically leads the economy by several months, you can guess what that means for Wall Street from here on out.

For the most part, we're in uncharted waters when it comes to the housing sector, and the boom-to-bust unwinding has been underway for over 18 months.

Then there's the unpredictable Dow Industrials. The DJIA plummeted over 1,000 points from its peak in July through early August and declining stocks overwhelmed advancing stocks more than 2:1. That type of negative breadth divergence has occurred only 15 times in 75 years – the majority of which were in bear markets.

Divergences are also appearing in major indexes, as the headline-grabbing DJIA has risen over 1000 points in the past five months – but the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has slipped lower.

If that isn't a flight to quality, I don't know what is!

As a consequence, I am moving to a full bear market defensive mode.

At InvesTech Research, I reveal which warning flags to watch closely in the coming weeks and months ahead.

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